Will Turkish mills achieve a further softening in import scrap prices?

Tuesday, 13 May 2014 17:09:33 (GMT+3)   |   Istanbul
 

Two weeks ago Turkish steelmakers had postponed their purchases and succeeded in forcing ex-US HMS prices down to $374/mt CFR from $378/mt CFR by resisting offers. As of last week, the new price level has started to be found on the high side and Turkish mills began to ask for lower prices. However, US scrap suppliers have not responded to this pressure for lower prices and have instead tried to hold their offers firm. In answer, Turkish buyers have started to adopt the same tactics as before regarding import scrap offers and have remained quiet in the past week in terms of activity. In addition, the supply-demand equilibrium in the Turkish scrap market has also provided support for the Turkish mills' waiting stance. On the other hand, although suppliers in Europe and in St. Petersburg have not cut their prices, some scrap deals have been concluded from these sources in Turkey towards the end of last week, with HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices standing in the range of $373-376/mt CFR.

Turkish mills have started the new week by concluding scrap purchases. Most of these purchases have been concluded from the Baltic region, with prices remaining at $373/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap. In addition, an-ex Houston, US scrap deal has been concluded in Turkey's Iskenderun region at $379/mt CFR for HMS I/II 80:20. Due to their higher quality, ex-Houston scrap prices are $3-4/mt higher than cargos from the East Coast of the US. With this transaction, it is observed that ex-US scrap prices have remained unchanged over the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, scrap flows at US yards have increased significantly in the past few weeks and US domestic prices have started to indicate signs of softening. This may be evidence of a gradual decline in ex-US scrap prices. If ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers to Turkey decline to $370-374/mt CFR, ex-US scrap bookings in Turkey may increase in the coming period.


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