Ex-US scrap bookings to Turkish steelmakers have been quiet since our last US export scrap report two weeks ago, when 20,000-28,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap was concluded at $330/mt CFR.
Since that time, continued volatility in Chinese billet offer prices combined with slackness of Turkish finished steel sales in both local and export markets, has Turkish mills standing on the scrap-buying sidelines.
SteelOrbis previously reported that Turkish steel producers, whose finished steel offers to the export markets have been failing to gain acceptance recently, are not expected to be in rush to conclude new scrap deals. Further, Turkish steel mills have said that current scrap offer prices are less important than developments in finished steel sales.
US export scrap sources have said they’ll continue to keep an eye on both Turkish finished steel prices and ex-China billet offer prices, in the upcoming days.
Two weeks ago, ex-China billet offer prices to Turkish steelmakers were heard in at $350-$360/mt FOB but offer prices fell to $300-$320/mt FOB on May 13. Then, five days later, Chinese billet export quotations increased to $320-$340/mt FOB.
“The writing is on the wall,” one source said. “Based on what’s going on with billet prices, we believe the next cargo [of HMS I/II 80:20] will likely be booked at $280-$300/mt CFR.”
Another source agreed, adding that “If I were a betting guy I’d put my money on $280/mt CFR.”