In the last couple of weeks, export scrap activity and prices have improved, but not across the board. Turkey has been more active in the last few weeks, securing scrap cargos before the start of the Ramadan holiday in early July. Most of Turkey's scrap bookings have been for European scrap, but a few cargos have also been sold off the US East Coast, allowing export prices to firm. About two weeks ago, ex-US HMS I/II scrap was sold to Turkey at about $345/mt CFR, but the latest sale at the end of this past week was at $359/mt CFR, up about $4-$5/mt from a mixed cargo sale just days earlier. Dealer sources told SteelOrbis that these sales are promising, especially considering an anticipated uptrend in US domestic scrap prices in July (current predictions range from an increase of $10-$30/lt, depending on grade and region). However, with improved scrap collection locally in Turkey, and Turkish mills looking to Europe for scrap and even semi-finished products, a significant increase in ex-US export scrap prices is unlikely.
Overall, the market is likely to quiet again next week due to many taking extended vacations for the Independence Day holiday, but there is some hope of revival for the export scrap market on the US West Coast during mid-July. Export scrap activity off the US West Coast has been especially quiet in the last few weeks, with the market extremely soft in China, Vietnam and Taiwan. Sources noted that summer power restrictions in China will lessen China's demand for scrap, and Taiwanese mills have been sourcing scrap from Japan recently as currency fluctuations made Japanese scrap more attractive. Still, a few cargos have been sold in recent weeks. The latest HMS I/II bulk cargo off the US West Coast was sold at $350-$355/mt CFR, while current Taiwanese offers for ex-US container scrap remain at $335/mt CFR, as they did two weeks ago. There was some optimism about a week ago that prices could begin to firm--by about $10/mt or so--but that optimism has since faded and the market is now largely flat.