We stated in our previous reports that Turkish mills had long been delaying their scrap purchases as they expected to see a decline in scrap prices. In the previous week, a Turkish mill launched a tender to conclude a scrap booking ex-deep sea; however, the tender was not finalized as the desired price failed to materialize. Although the mill in question was expecting to conclude at a level of $335/mt CFR, the suppliers' offers remained at around $345/mt CFR. This was a signal that scrap prices in the Turkish market would not drop down to the levels expected by the mills.
After this tender, with the emergence of a clearer idea in the market regarding prices, a Turkish mill concluded two scrap bookings ex-deep sea at the weekend. As previously reported by SteelOrbis in the Raw Materials/Price Reports section, the prices in these bookings were as follows:
HMS I/II 70:30 ex-continental Europe | $333/mt CFR Turkey |
HMS I/II 80:20 ex-UK | $341/mt CFR Turkey |
It is expected that the offer prices in the previous week's tender and the subsequent above-mentioned two bookings will provide a reference point for the market. On the one hand, the prices are foreseen to indicate a slight increase under the effect of the high €/$ exchange rate, the expectation for a high purchase demand and high freight rates; on the other hand, the effect of the sluggish billet and finished product markets (where prices are continuing on their declining trends), is thought likely to prevent this increase. Accordingly, the price expectation for this week is as follows:
Shredded scrap ex-deep sea | $345-347/mt CFR Turkish ports |
HMS I/II 80:20 ex-deep sea | $340-342/mt CFR Turkish ports |
HMS I/II 70:30 ex-deep sea | $333-335/mt CFR Turkish ports |
With regard to the Black Sea, although prices at a level of $333-335/mt CFR are being heard in some spot purchases with small tonnages, it is also heard that most offers from suppliers are at around $340/mt CFR and that suppliers do not intend to reduce their prices to lower levels due to the further rise seen in freight rates.
This week, it is predicted that a few more Turkish mills will conclude bookings; however, they are not likely to pay higher levels than the above prices for scrap due to the effect of the finished product markets.