While Turkey’s import scrap market recorded a slight downward correction in prices since the SteelOrbis Fall 2023 Conference & 89th IREPAS Meeting held on September 17-19, the sentiment in the market may change following Russia’s decision to implement new regulations for raw material and steel exports.
A Marmara-based steel mill bought an ex-US scrap cargo yesterday, September 21, consisting of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $375/mt CFR and shredded scrap at $395/mt CFR. An Izmir-based producer bought another ex-US cargo on September 20, for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $375/mt CFR, shredded at $395/mt CFR, and bonus grade scrap at $375/mt CFR. The same producer is rumoured to have concluded another ex-US scrap booking at the same price levels. An Iskenderun-based producer has also concluded another deal for 15,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $375/mt CFR and 15,000 mt of shredded scrap at $395/mt CFR. Hence, currently the ex-US benchmark scrap price is at $375/mt CFR.
An ex-UK scrap deal was also done yesterday by the abovementioned Marmara-based steelmaker, for 18,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $367/mt CFR. Another ex-Belgium transaction was done by a Black Sea region-based mill on Monday this week with the HMS I/II 80:20 scrap price at $368/mt CFR. These levels are $3-4/mt lower than the previous reference price.
Most European sub-collectors still report that HMS I/II 70:30 scrap is being sold to export yards at €300-305/mt DAP, with the lower end of prices met by lower supply. HMS I/II 80:20 scrap is still changing hands at around €310s/mt DAP Belgium. The collection prices in the EU remain relatively stable, with some exporters starting to mention the downward pressure coming out of Turkey. On the other hand, some market players believe the anticipated new export duty in Russia may result in higher raw material prices. In the January-July period, Turkey imported 1,053,238 mt of billet and bloom from Russia, 47 percent of the total imported volume. Turkey’s slab imports in this period from Russia came to 1,044,558 mt. The position of ex-Russia scrap is significantly weaker than other raw materials, with Turkey buying 192,339 mt of scrap from Russia during the January-July period. Hence, if there is an impact from Russia’s new export duty on Turkey’s steel market, it will come from the semi-finished segment. A Turkish mill commented, “Without the support of cheaper billets, we would fail to maintain sustainable margins for production.” Another source said, “Turkish mills would lean on domestic billets or focus on alternative suppliers in Asia. So, the impact may be short-lived.” SteelOrbis hears that there are several deep sea offers still in the market, with offer prices relatively in line with the newest prices recorded in deals. SteelOrbis observes that no clear general idea has emerged in the Turkish scrap market yet regarding the impact of the new Russian export duty.