Although the most recent ex-US scrap booking for 20,000-28,000 mt of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap was concluded at $330/mt CFR earlier this week, many within the US East coast export scrap market have started to question whether the run-up in cargo booking prices to Turkish steelmakers has finally come to an end.
Current ex-US cargo booking prices for HMS I/II 80:20 to Turkish steelmakers have increased $99/mt CFR in the past four weeks.
It should also be noted that ex-US cargo booking prices for HMS I/II 80:20 to Turkish steelmakers are up $131.50/mt CFR from deals that were concluded in early March, when a Turkish mill booked an ex-US cargo at $198.50/mt CFR.
At this point, sources note, all eyes continue to be on Chinese billet prices, as previous upticks in ex-China billet offer prices to Turkey "were a driving force in higher export scrap booking prices out of the US."
Ex-China billet offer prices to Turkish steelmakers, which were heard in the approximate range of $400-$410/mt CFR in our last US export scrap report two weeks ago, declined sharply last week and closed the week at $350-$360/mt FOB, while Chinese billet export offers are now being heard in the range of $330-$335/mt FOB, indicating a decline over the weekend.
"Iron ore prices are showing some softness," another source said. Prices of ex-Australia iron ore of 62 percent Fe content started the current week at $65-$65.50/mt CFR China; on Friday, prices had fallen to $59-$59.50/mt CFR China.
"If iron ore keeps falling and China keeps reducing billet offer prices to Turkey, that could have a negative impact on ex-US bookings."