The silence seen earlier in the current week has been broken by some deals surfacing in Turkey’s import scrap market. The first couple of deals attracted attention as prices moved in different directions depending on the region.
Today, Turkey’s import scrap market has recovered a bit. Market sources report Turkish mills are seeking for cargoes, and it is already October 27, hence price remains firm. However, one cannot say that there is a consensus between players. Some believe price trend has changed and further increase can be seen, while others think it is not possible to maintain sustainability if prices continue to move up. An ex-US and ex-EU scrap seller thinks this recent rise in scrap prices is surprising, adding that “I am not sure if there is a large room for increase, maybe prices may hit $360-365/mt CFR Turkey and then stop moving.” A source from a Turkish mill agrees that it is a surprise for them, “If price continues to move up, considering the current rebar levels, it means producers are not gaining much money.” Meanwhile, a European scrap supplier thinks scrap flow to export yards is on the low side for some time and it is not possible to secure tonnages with the current collection prices at €275-280/mt DAP. Turkey needs around 7-8 deep sea scrap cargoes to be shipped in the second half of November.
Under the current conditions, the deep sea benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices in CFR terms have moved up by 1.43 percent week on week. The prices are now 4.44 percent lower month on month in the deep sea segment, with prices being in the range of $352-358/mt CFR.
As recently as late last week, scrap market sources throughout the US largely believed that November scrap prices would hold “mostly level.” However, all sources polled said they believed that, if the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) strike, which had essentially halted auto production at Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, came to an end, their prediction would shift from sideways to up.
SteelOrbis has learned that the current price for Mexican domestic shredded scrap is now at MXN 7,750/mt ($415/mt), compared to MXN 7,950/mt ($430/mt) a week ago. Additionally, HMS I/II scrap prices are being heard at MXN 6,500/mt ($348/mt), compared to MXN 6,600/mt ($357/mt) last week.
Amid Turkey’s reluctance to pay higher levels for deep sea scrap cargoes and due to the negative sentiment in the international scrap and steel markets, the local German scrap market has moved down over the month of October. This possibility had already been voiced by market players at the end of September and the decline is in line with expectations. The high interest rates in the country at around 4.6-4.8 percent are also hindering steel demand, SteelOrbis understands. German sources agree that scrap availability is decreasing in the country, but the lack of demand has a deeper impact on prices.
Amid the downtrend observed in the international scrap market lately, Taiwan’s import scrap market has also been impacted. Offers for ex-US HMS I/II (80:20) scrap in containers to Taiwan have continued their downtrend, from $360-365/mt CFR to $359/mt CFR. Japanese scrap suppliers are sharing offers for H1/2 (50:50) scrap by bulk to Taiwan at $365-370/mt CFR.