Tepid demand in the finished steel markets, along with Ramadan and summer holidays, and now the global economic turmoil added on top of these, have almost caused Turkish mills' scrap booking activity to come to a halt. With some producers conducting planned maintenance works, the production of these mills has been suspended for two to three weeks. Last week, Turkish mills' ex-deep sea scrap transactions were limited and most transactions were concluded from a Canadian scrap supplier.
In Turkey, ex-US scrap prices are trending sideways. Ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap offers for Turkey are at $475/mt CFR, while shredded scrap offers are at $480/mt CFR. In the latest ex-US HMS I/II 80:20 scrap transaction to Turkey, the price was at $471/mt CFR. As SteelOrbis reported last week, ex-Canada scrap was transacted at $474-476/mt CFR Turkey. Given that US domestic scrap prices are trending sideways to slightly down depending on the grade, ex-US scrap prices in Turkey are not expected to increase from current levels, since scrap demand lacks strength both in the US domestic market and in the Far East.
While there has not been any new ex-Europe scrap offers heard in Turkey this week, the price for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap is not expected to climb above $463/mt CFR Turkey.
Ex-Black Sea A3 scrap offers to Turkey from Romania and Russia are at $460/mt CFR and $465/mt CFR respectively. In addition, there have been some A3 scrap transactions in Turkey from Romania at $455/mt CFR and from Russia at $460/mt CFR. Towards the end of last week, an ex-Baltic scrap transaction in Turkey was concluded at $474/mt CFR.
Turkish mills were expecting finished steel demand to rebound in the post-Ramadan period. However, with the current economic perturbations, it has now become difficult to assess the outlook for the finished steel markets. Under the current situation, Turkish mills are not expected to replenish their scrap inventories and they are anticipated to accelerate their scrap bookings only when the finished steel markets become livelier.