Although the availability of cheap import positions and future order offers was cited as the primary reason behind US rebar mills’ surprising $1.25 cwt. ($25/nt or $28/mt) transaction price decrease this week, import data indicate that the annual Q1 rebar flood might not be as strong as usual. According to SIMA license data, only 33,097 mt of rebar has arrived in the US this month (as of January 13), compared to 114,417 mt in December, and although import offers are poised to drop again, traders tell SteelOrbis that order activity is not robust. Demand in the US is still reportedly strong, however, which means that depending on import tonnage totals for the end of this month and next, there’s a strong chance US mills could either officially rescind the decrease or quietly increase offers on an individual basis. For now, the new spot price range has dropped to $32.75-$33.75 cwt. ($655-$675/nt or $722-$744/mt) ex-mill.
As for imports, while higher scrap prices in the beginning of January brought relief in the months-long downtrend for rebar offers from Turkey, sources tell SteelOrbis that the trend has reversed and lower rebar offer prices are on the horizon. For now, traders are still offering for $26.50-$27.50 cwt. ($530-$550/nt or $584-$606/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports.