While domestic rebar prices are still trending sideways, Asian import prices are still trending slightly up due to the high ocean freight rates; Turkish offers, on the other hand, may soon be heading down.
As announced earlier this week, Nucor will keep rebar pricing flat in October by reducing base prices by $17 /long ton, the same amount of the October RMS increase. Most domestic rebar offers will continue to range from $30.90 cwt. to $31.40 cwt. ($681 /mt to $692 /mt or $618 /nt to $628 /nt) FOB mill.
Although Nucor kept rebar prices flat, it raised the prices of merchant bars and structurals. It is obvious that rebar demand is still relatively soft compared to some long products; however, it is stronger than wire rod demand and the increasing scrap costs will help to keep prices stable. The pricing trend for domestic rebar remains flat.
On the import side, there have been some sharp decreases in the Turkish domestic and export rebar prices. Turkish producers are faced with strong scrap prices but are seeing very quiet markets in Europe, the Middle East and especially the US. Moreover, ocean freight rates have been hovering at record levels, and the weakening US dollar makes deals to the US market even more difficult. As a result, holes quickly developed in Turkish producers' production schedules, forcing them to lower prices.
Since the IREPAS meeting last week, prices have softened by $10 /mt to $20 /mt ($9 /nt to $18 /nt or $0.45 cwt. to $0.91 cwt.) on an FOB basis. However, this price decrease has yet to be reflected in traders' offers to the market. New import offers for US customers continue to range from $29.50 cwt. to $30.50 cwt. ($650 /mt to $672 /mt or $590 /nt to $610 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports.
On the contrary, the rebar markets in the Far East remain strong, with Taiwanese domestic numbers registering increases in recent weeks.
Also spot prices for material already on the ground, particularly in Houston, have gone down some due to the abundance of cheap imports being offered from Mexico. Rebar being offered from Mexico is roughly $2.00 to $2.50 cwt. ($44 /mt to $55 /mt or $40 /nt to $50 /nt) under import pricing from other sources. Mexico is not considered to be a reliable large volume supplier to the US market; however, these low offers are still putting negative pressure on spot offer levels and on future offers.