Although activity within the US domestic and import rebar markets has been quiet this week due to the holidays, sources tell SteelOrbis that many are strategizing in preparation for the first quarter rebar import flood that has hit US ports consistently for the past few years. Arrivals from Turkey are expected to be abundant as usual, but bookings from alternative sources in late fall are expected to boost overall tonnage numbers in a far greater proportion than usual. Already, US import data show that the US imported over 20,000 mt of rebar from Spain in December, while an impressive 15,000-plus tons came from Portugal after zero showings for most of 2014.
Position deals at the port should be as competitive as ever, while future bookings take a backseat for a month or so despite still-low levels. Although most traders are not booking much, if at all, this week, they say prices from Turkey are still hovering in the range of $26.50-$27.50 cwt. ($530-$550/nt or $584-$606/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. Meanwhile, US domestic rebar prices are holding firm at $34.00-$35.00 cwt. ($680-$700/nt or $750-$772/mt) ex-mill. Once the import flood gains in volume, however, it is possible that not even predicted strong demand for rebar in the US will enable domestic mills to keep their grasp on prices firm.