Import rebar offering prices for the US have decreased by approximately $0.25 cwt. ($5 /nt or $5.50 /mt) in the past week, with most import rebar offers on the market now ranging from $30.00 cwt. to $31.00 cwt. ($661 /mt to $683 /mt or $600 /nt to $620 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports.
Spot prices for import rebar are now at around the same price as replacement costs. In general, import rebar prices are still trending slightly down due to the soft demand from the US as well as the softening Turkish rebar market. Still, the spot buying activity seen in recent weeks indicates that distributors are re-stocking their inventories for an eventual up-turn in the market.
Rebar import totals in the US are down this year compared to 2006 totals; however, imports have started to catch up to last year's record totals over the past two months. Rounded to the nearest hundred tons, license data from the US Import Administration show that rebar imports totaled 214,800 mt in May (compared to 187,200 mt in May 2006), and rose to 257,800 mt in June (compared to 213,700 mt in June 2006). Year-to-date (through the end of June), rebar imports totaled 1,092,400 mt, not too far behind the amount imported during the same period of last year, i.e. 1,273,300 mt. Some of the entered tonnage has not quite found a final home yet, and traders are reported to have large inventories. Also, after a brief surge in May, June and July, arrivals should start to slow down for at least the duration of the year.
Imports this year have had limited penetration to the Northeastern and Midwestern regions, since most rebar imports arrive in the Gulf and it has not been profitable for customers to pay the added costs of shipping upriver during this slow market. Turkey, Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, and Brazil remain the US' top import sources for rebar. Turkey and Japan are currently the most aggressive import sources to the US.
Domestic rebar prices may remain stable for another month since scrap prices are not expected to drop significantly in July. Automotive scrap bundle prices are trending sideways which usually means shredded scrap prices will remain relatively stable as well. But despite the stable scrap market, if domestic mills keep prices flat it will be hard for them to remain competitive given the slow demand.
For now, domestic rebar offers continue to range from $31.90 cwt. to $32.40 cwt. ($703 /mt to $714 /mt or $638 /nt to $648 /nt) FOB mill. The pricing trend for domestic rebar is still slightly down