A strong expectation for an uptrend in scrap prices next month already had many within the US domestic rebar market optimistic, and the preliminary CVD ruling today by the US Department Commerce (DOC) has further boosted confidence, according to sources.
Although only one Turkish rebar producer—Habas—was subject to the DOC’s preliminary subsidy rate of 3.47 percent, sources say the move supports longtime claims from US rebar mills that Turkish mills have an “unfair advantage” in the global market. It has also raised hopes that the DOC’s preliminary AD margins, due next week, might be higher than expected.
As a result, predictions of another price increase for US domestic rebar might come sooner rather than later. Some sources expect US mills to announce after preliminary AD results are released, while others think mills will wait until scrap settles to “see how high they can reasonably go.” One source even suggested two separate price increase announcements—one within a week and the other in early March. Either way, most sources contend the total increase amount will be “no less” than $1.25 cwt. ($25/nt or $28/mt).