As SteelOrbis predicted, Nucor announced last week that it would keep its rebar pricing stable in August. However, while the major domestic rebar players will not officially lower prices, special discounts and rebates for large buyers are taking place.
Ultimately, Nucor decided to keep list prices stable for another month, reflecting the flat scrap pricing trend, and other producers followed suit. Still, business has not improved, and if demand doesn't start to pick up, the domestic mills may have to lower prices in September.
For now, and throughout the month of August, most domestic rebar offers will continue to range from $31.90 cwt. to $32.40 cwt. ($703 /mt to $714 /mt or $638 /nt to $648 /nt) FOB mill. However, as we mentioned, there are some special deals for certain customers that are slightly below this range.
Meanwhile, the Turkish mills are desperate to do business with the US, as their other export markets, Europe and the Middle East, have slowed considerably. Turkish mills have had to lower their numbers in recent weeks to attract some US buyers. Asian mills are slowly lowering their numbers also.
Still, there is very little sales activity for new offers for future shipment. Some shipments that were purchased earlier in the year at higher prices are now trickling in, but they are unable to find buyers at profitable levels.
Most new import offers have stayed at the same pricing range as last week, with offers continuing to range from $29.75 cwt. to $30.75 cwt. ($656 /mt to $678 /mt or $595 /nt to $615 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports. The pricing trend for import rebar is down, with these numbers expected to slip further in the coming weeks before bottoming out.
Data from the US Import Administration show that year-to-date (through the end of June), rebar imports to the US totaled 1,092,400 mt, with the most rebar tonnage coming from the following countries (YTD): Turkey, at 302,680 mt, Taiwan, at 209,701 mt; Mexico, at 133,216 mt; Japan, at 124,210 mt; and Brazil, at 74,018 mt.