Import rebar prices in the US have continued their relentless upward push, with offers rising approximately $1.00 cwt. ($22 /mt or $20 /nt) in the past week.
Most import rebar offers for US customers currently range from $36.50 cwt. to $37.50 cwt. ($805 /mt to $827 /mt or $730 /nt to $750 /nt) FOB, loaded truck, in US Gulf ports.
Aside from some scattered offers from Mexico, Turkey remains the only major import source offering rebar to the US. Price levels in Taiwan, a typical import rebar supplier for the US in 2007, are currently way too high to be accepted in the US due to the higher priced billets in the region.
The pricing trend for import rebar in the US remains strongly up, since the price level that traders are offering to US customers still hasn't caught up with the prices that Turkish mills are now offering to traders. Some traders are now committing to the higher prices offered by Turkish mills, with a lot of tons currently being booked on a position basis. These higher prices (new FOB, loaded truck in the Gulf offers are currently $38.00 cwt. and up) should soon be reflected in the prices for customers.
SteelOrbis hears that rebars in the #3 size are currently in short supply, as they are restricted by both Turkish and US mills. Rebars 20 feet in length are also restricted, as this smaller size reduces mill productivity. The bulk of the current import booking activity is for 40-footers and #4 and larger sizes.
On the domestic side, a lot of customers are finally stepping up and buying tons. Mills are busy and are enjoying the relative lack of imports. Looking forward, the fate of the scrap market is ultimately the main factor that will determine whether or not domestic rebar prices will move in March, and by how much. No big change in scrap prices is expected for next month, and if scrap moves by $20 /ton or less, it is likely that mills will opt to keep prices stable. For this reason, the pricing trend for domestic rebar is expected to remain neutral for the next month.
Domestic numbers for February shipments range from $36.15 cwt. to $36.65 cwt. ($797 /mt to $808/mt or $723 /nt to $733 /nt) FOB mill.