Although spot prices for US domestic merchant bar were reportedly "all over the place" in late February, the $1.25 cwt. ($28/mt or $25/nt) price increase announced this month for April shipments has settled the market somewhat. Some of the increase has already seeped into spot prices for certain products in certain regions, and while it's not clear whether the full increase will take effect in April, rampant discounting in the market seems to have subsided. For now, most spot prices are just above pre-increase published prices of $37.35-$38.80 cwt. ($823-$855/mt or $747-$776/nt) ex-mill (depending on size and shape), anywhere from $0.25 cwt. ($5.50/mt or $5/nt) to $0.75 cwt. ($17/mt or $15/nt).
Because there is uncertainty in the market regarding how much of the increase will make its way into the market before scrap prices settle next month (predictions are for a sideways to slightly down trend), customers in the US are not looking to stockpile right now--with domestic or import product. But even if overall demand improves marginally in the next month or so, import merchant bar inquiries will likely remain tepid, as the margin between US and import offerings is not wide enough to garner much interest. Import offers from Turkey are currently in the range of $36.00-$37.00 cwt. ($794-$816/mt or $720-$740/nt) DDP loaded truck at US Gulf ports, down about $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) since late February. But unless prices dip considerably, sources tell SteelOrbis that any demand pick-up for merchant bar in the US will be mostly satisfied with US-produced merchant bar for the foreseeable future.