While the previous upward trajectory of US domestic rebar prices was thought to have plateaued last week, new confidence in February scrap prices has injected the market with optimism. The monthly US domestic scrap buy-cycle is still in process, but expectations of a price decrease around $25-$35/ton for Midwest shredded scrap are now shifting to a more modest decrease. If scrap prices only drop by $20/ton or less, sources say, US rebar mills could “ignore scrap completely and push ahead with higher prices.”
This push would most likely be “off the books”—not in the form of a published price increase—with mills gradually firming prices on a case-by-case basis. Sources say there are already indications of this strategy in play now, with fewer significant deals available even for large distributors.
Looking ahead, early predictions for March scrap prices are already trending positive, and sources say “any sort of scrap increase” would trigger a mill-announced rebar price hike. Until then, spot prices for US domestic rebar are expected to hover in the range of $30.75-$32.75 cwt. ($615-$655/nt or $678-$722/mt) ex-mill.