Uptrend expectations in Middle East rebar market in October

Friday, 05 September 2008 15:14:14 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Rebar prices in the Turkish domestic market continue to decrease. The rebar prices in this market were at the price levels of TRY 1,150-1,200/mt ex-works including VAT ($784-818/mt ex-works excluding VAT) in the earlier days in this week. Those prices have decreased to the price levels of TRY 1,130-1,150/mt ex-works including VAT ($771-784/mt ex-works excluding VAT) through the end of this week. Meanwhile, the Turkish rebar export offers have also declined compared to last week. Those offers were at $920-1,000/mt FOB Turkey last week, while they have been at $900-1,000/mt FOB Turkey during the current week. There are two main reasons for the wide price gap between the lowest and highest levels of this price range - i.e. some Turkish producers are planning to slowdown their productions and they are not in hurry for making sales.

Even though there is a lively end user demand level in the Middle East, the rebar prices in this region have been declining. The biggest reason of this situation could be found in the fact that the supply is higher than demand in this region. In addition,  a large amount of rebar offers in the Middle East,, seasonal hot weather conditions and the expectation of the slowness in the construction projects and purchase activity, are all played  a great role in the abovementioned price declines. Dubai market is currently receiving September shipments and the rebar price levels in this market are currently at AED 4,200-4,400/mt ($1,143-1,198/mt) delivered to site, while the receiving shipments' (previously concluded deals) price levels are at $1,400/mt CFR Dubai. In this situation, the Dubai traders think that the market will face with difficulties due to the price gap between the current market price and the receiving shipment price level.

The rebar prices are also declining in the local Saudi Arabia market. As it is widely known, due to the rising end user demand in the local market, Saudi Arabian government had restricted the rebar and billet exports and increased the imports. However, due to the rising supply and cheap import rebar deals, the rebar price in this market are in a downward trend. The price level of 8-16 mm rebars in the local Saudi Arabia market has been varying in the price range of SAR 4,550-4,800/mt ($1,231-1,280/mt) ex-works.

The rebar prices are also declining in Lebanese domestic market. The downward trend in the global rebar market and the cheap rebar from Syria both have impacted the local Lebanon rebar market.

In general, it is expected that the downward price trend will continue in the Middle East due to Ramadan. However, the local traders in this region hope that the end user demand will awake after Ramadan and anticipate  that the rebar prices will rebound in October.


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