Turkish long products market outlook

Friday, 07 April 2006 14:16:31 (GMT+3)   |  
       

The domestic rebar prices for 12 mm reached TRY 810-820/mt, including VAT, ($512-518/mt+VAT) on actual weight basis with the increases at the beginning of the week. However, local traders, which feel pessimism about their high inventories and the weaker-than-local export market for Turkish mills, started sales in the local market. Consequently, although producers' price lists have not changed, rebar prices for 12 mm diameter regressed to TRY 780/mt, including VAT, ($493/mt+VAT) with the discounts. The fact is that even though the prices were not at the levels of early this week levels heard for rebars are still in good fix. Producers also have not sufficient material on hand. Turkish local market is now in construction season and if the producers will start to achieve favorable prices for export, it is expected that at least prices retain their levels or may start climbing again. However, domestic trading companies prefer to wait since the Gulf region, the US and Europe will play the important role in here. Merchant bar market remained almost unchanged over the previous week. Angle prices are at around $510-530/ton+VAT on actual weight basis, while flat bar prices are at around $525-540/ton. Merchant bar market remains similar to rebar market. Trading companies are worried about the higher prices increases as they consider these prices not favorable for export. Therefore, the market remained stagnant this week. Most producers did not submit much offers during the last two weeks as the domestic market prices were really strong. Sales concluded were heard at around $476/ton FOB for Israel and around $480/ton FOB for Portugal at the beginning of the week. All these sales will be loaded at the end of June. It is not possible to find offers below $490/ton FOB levels for new offers. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate, which closes to 1.225, will provide an advantage for the offers to Europe. New offer levels already close to domestic prices. If Turkish rebar prices find acceptance especially in the UAE, domestic prices may indicate a slight increase. Merchant bar exports indicate rather critical circumstances than rebar. Turkish players in this market have to set a price depending on the billet prices since the important merchant bar producers in the Turkish market are all rolling mills and not EAFs. As a result, the steep increase in Turkish billet prices and CIS origin billet prices put the producers on the spot. This week, angle offers are at $525-530/ton FOB. However, there is not much demand for the material at these levels. There is a revival in Spanish, Portuguese and the UK market, but it is not enough for the time being. However, the required prices for export can be achieved in the coming days due to the high level of Euro/US Dollar exchange rate and the expectation of a slight price increase in Western European local prices. Bulgarian producers, who are the major competitors of Turkish merchant bar producers, have already sold the May productions. They are waiting Turkish prices to fix for their June productions since they are trying to enter the market by giving lower offers than the Turkish prices. If Europe starts buying next week, Bulgarian prices will also begin to fix.

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