Despite predictions last week that a transaction price increase for US domestic rebar was due “any day,” mills have remained quiet. Sources say in addition to the preliminary AD margins issued by the DOC, US rebar mills opted to wait until domestic scrap prices settled before making a move.
Now that the majority of scrap trading has settled for the month, an increase of around $30 per ton on Midwest shredded scrap has boosted US rebar mills’ leverage. Combined with the 5.29-7.07 percent preliminary AD margins against Turkish rebar (which calculates to around $30/mt based on current import offer prices), sources say US mills are in a position to issue a substantial rebar price increase without concerns about customer resistance. Expectations for the increase range from $2.00-$2.50 cwt. ($40-$50/nt or $44-$55/mt).
Until anything is announced, US spot prices are expected to continue trending at $31.25-$32.75 cwt. ($625-$655/nt or $689-$722/mt) ex-mill. As with last week, deals for below that range are still unavailable, and most transactions are still taking place in the middle to upper end of the range.