While demand for rebar in the US is still the healthiest it’s been in years, there is concern about how (or if) the domestic market will be able to sustain prices in the face of continuously decreasing import offer prices and increasing import arrivals. Already, prices for future orders of Turkish rebar have dropped by about $0.50 cwt. ($10/nt or $11/mt) in the last week to $27.50-$28.50 cwt. ($550-$570/nt or $606-$628/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports. And even though positions at the port are still available closer to the $28.50 cwt. end of the range, the convenience of custom-sized orders has kept interest high.
However, there is no indication--this week at least--that US domestic mills are taking the ever-weakening import trend into consideration. Sources tell SteelOrbis that order activity is still robust enough for mills to still book orders in the spot range of $35.25-$36.25 cwt. ($705-$725/nt or $777-$799/mt) ex-mill, and if any deal-making is taking place, it’s with larger distributors. When and if mills extend flexibility to the rest of the rebar market remains to be seen for now, but with no indication that Turkish import offers will level out, a reaction might come ahead of the now-traditional Q1 import flood.