Decline in Far East to influence Mediterranean?

Thursday, 13 July 2006 17:01:23 (GMT+3)   |  
       

The slowdown in structural steel prices with the contribution of monsoon season in Far East seems to have affected the Gulf market. However, Southern European markets still continue their strong position and prices are increasing in some regions. Rebar offers ex-Turkey are in a price range of $530-540/mt FOB for September shipment. These offers indicate a decline compared to two-three weeks ago. The fact that UAE was not in the market for two weeks and that the competitors declined their prices in the US market were effective in this correction. Despite the strong market in Southern Europe, exports are not much forceful. Offer levels of $550-555/mt CFR ex-Baltic countries to the UK and Ireland seem to block the Turkish offers. The expectations for domestic market are downward and traders have not enough stocks. Traders had run through their stocks in June, expecting a slowdown in prices and they are not making huge purchases since the beginning of July. This situation creates pressure on prices. Israel market is under pressure of both the slowdown of prices in Turkey and political issues. Prices indicated a slight decline and reached around $580-585/mt ex-works last week. Prices also remained unchanged this week; however, if this situation continues, prices may slow down a little bit next week. Domestic market in Southern Europe retains its strong position contrary to expectations. There were rallies especially in Italy after the low prices at the beginning of June. Domestic market started to strengthen after the strong export position of Italy in the other markets, except for Algeria, in early June. Italian producers even started to take orders for post-holiday. It is heard that domestic prices rose to Euro 450/mt delivered to warehouse. Furthermore, the strong domestic market causes tightness in products for exports. Rebar prices in Portugal are at around Euro 500/mt and domestic market is strong. However, customers are not much interested in imports. Importers are not showing much interest to Italian origin material due to the increase in Euro/US Dollar exchange rate and price increases of Italian producers. Also the slowdown of Turkish rebar leads importers to wait. Generally, Southern European, Middle Eastern and Gulf regions are in various movements. Spain, Portugal and Italy continue their strong position while there are slowdowns in Far Eastern and Gulf markets due to the Chinese and Indian origin products' threat. The slowdowns in these markets affect the Turkish origin rebar as well. Furthermore, slowdowns are expected in CIS. However, the strong domestic market of CIS supports the export prices for the time being. The slowdown in Far East seems not to have affected the Eastern Europe for the time being. However, the important issue is; how the slowdown in Turkish origin rebars, which are exported considerably to Spain, Portugal and Italy, will affect the Southern Europe. Some market players defend that this slowdown will affect the Southern European prices in medium-term, but not in short-term while the others consider that the Far East will rally in August with the better weather conditions. They also allege that this situation may lead an upward movement in Middle East and Gulf towards mid-August.

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