Could the rise in the Turkish rebar market jumpstart the other markets?

The rebar prices in the Turkish market have indicated a sharp increase due to the huge tonnage purchases made by traders three weeks ago. This week, prices have reached a peak. Turkey's Payas region has registered the highest prices. 8-12 mm rebar prices were at TRY 855-910/mt, including VAT, in the domestic market. The latest sales prices in Turkey's Marmara region, which was out of the market this week, were at TRY 855-860/mt. Although 8-12 mm rebar prices were at TRY 875-895/mt in the Izmir region, it is possible to find 12 mm rebar at TRY 860/mt. The rebar prices in Turkey's Payas region have increased to TRY 900-910/mt. The Sivas region was also out of the market this week. Rebar demand was strong thanks to the good weather conditions. However, most traders have high stocks. Therefore, some traders may decide to conclude low-priced sales with a view to profit-taking. However, the increase in scrap exports and import prices may cause this decline to be short-term and slight. On the export front, it was not possible to find Turkish export offers to destinations other than the US and Gulf markets at $470-475/mt FOB two-weeks ago. Currently, export offers are at $490-495/mt FOB Turkish ports. The export offers are higher than $500/mt FOB in Turkey's Payas region since domestic rebar prices there are higher. Due to the appreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar, the demand from Europe has increased. However, customers are still trying to purchase at last week's levels. Actually, there is not much activity in demand going into the winter season. However, European customers are not willing to face higher prices than those currently available after the Christmas holiday. Taking into consideration that prices may increase further after the New Year, European customers may conclude purchases before Christmas. This situation may bring activity to the European market. In addition, the US customers may also conclude small purchases before Christmas. The price level of AENOR-certificated 12 mm rebar in the local Spanish market is at around Euro 465-470/mt delivered to warehouse, excluding VAT. The demand has slowed down since last week due to the approaching winter and the expectation that the prices may decline further. However, domestic mills may increase their prices soon due to the pressure of imported prices. This situation may lead to activity in the Spanish market before Christmas. The situation in Italy is slightly different. The rebar price level in Italy is at Euro 410-430/mt. The increase in the Euro / US Dollar exchange rate affects imports positively, but affects exports, especially those to Algeria, negatively. The price decline in Ukraine and Algeria seems have created difficulty for the Italian mills in December. The Ukrainian offers for Algeria are currently at around $460/mt FOB Black Sea. The offers for Eastern Europe are slightly higher. If the domestic demand in Italy increases enough to reduce the effects of the slowdown in exports, there will be a rally in Italy. A local mill in the UAE announced its rebar price at around AED 1,900/mt ex-works for January shipments early this month. Rebar offers from Turkey were at $480/mt CFR on theoretical weight basis till last week. However, mills are now insisting on $505/mt CFR level on theoretical weight basis. If Turkish mills sell rebars at sufficient amounts to Europe and the US, it seems that they may maintain these levels in the Gulf region. The overall expectation in November was that the market would be relatively slow in December and would then gain activity in January due to spring shipments. However, in the local Turkish market, dealers, thinking that prices had bottomed out with the slight increase in the US Dollar/Euro exchange rate three weeks ago, purchased rebars in significant amounts. This activity in the local market has now been reflected in exports. If Europe, the US and Gulf markets react to the market before Christmas, the rise which began in the Turkish local market may spread to the Mediterranean and the Middle Eastern markets.