US HRC prices have come off from their peak, sources note, however, many were quick to point out that the price fluctuation has been minor. In late September, US HRC prices were hovering at or slightly below $98 cwt. ($2,161/mt or $1,960/nt), FOB mill, while today, the most commonly heard price is closer to $95 cwt. ($2,094/mt or $1,900/nt) FOB mill, which reflects an approximate 3% dip, month-over-month.
In terms of an average HRC price range, this week’s most commonly heard transaction range is trending at $94-$97 ($2,072-$2,139/mt or $1,880-$1,940/nt), FOB mill, against a range of $95-$98 cwt. ($2,094-$2,161/mt or $1,900-$1,960/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
“In the grand scheme of things, and especially when you consider where prices are now, down $3 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt) really doesn’t mean a lot,” a source said, noting that prices are still roughly three times higher than they were during the same reporting period in 2020, when the average US HRC price range was trending at $31-$34 cwt. ($683-$750/mt or $620-$680/nt) FOB mill.
CRC prices, however, are still holding strong. Similar to last week, the most commonly heard spot price transaction range is still trending at $106-$110 cwt. ($2,337-$2,425/mt or $2,120-$2,200/nt), FOB mill.
And while some buyers are concerned that the market is at a tipping point, pointing out that import HRC and CRC is "priced significantly lowere than what the [domestic mills] are offering," and are concerned that prices could soon reverse course, others are dismissive of that notion, adding that if US scrap prices trend up as expected during the November buy cycle, this could help keep things stable.
“I don’t think you’re going to see the year-end ‘fire sales’ that we’ve seen in year’s past,” the source added. “One, the service centers aren’t bursting with inventory, and two, if scrap prices go up, that could give the market a psychological boost, at least in the short term.”