US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) transaction pricing has taken a $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) dip since our last report a week ago, as the challenges of oversupply and not-quite-up-to-par demand continues to permeate the market.
"Mills need orders, and since they can't make up demand, they cut price," commented a Midwest purchasing manager. "But sooner or later this will turn around. It didn't take a lot to make this tent fold, so it's not going to take a lot to put it back up again." The bright side, though, is that although activity is sluggish by most standards, people should note that current order activity does reflect a year-on-year improvement over the same period in 2009.
Yet as previously reported, until commercial construction begins to pick up, or unless there is a sudden and remarkable surge for demand within the automotive market, the slow yet steady softening trend will continue for coated steel product lines. However, had mills cut output six to eight weeks ago (as many in the industry had initially anticipated would happen, leading to congruence with supply and demand models), price stabilization, as opposed to softening, would likely be the current trend.
Although the pricing models below reflect the most commonly booked ranges, it should be noted that there are reports of deals in the approximate range of $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) below the low end of these ranges which are beginning to make their way into play.
Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week US domestic HDG base price $34 - $36 $750 - $794 $680-$720 ↓ $1.00 cwt. on lower end 0.012"x40.875" G30 ex-Midwest mill $45 - $47 $992 - $1,036 $900-$940 ↓ $1.00 cwt. 0.019"x48" G90 ex-Midwest mill $44 - $45 $970 - $992 $880-$900 ↓ $1.00 cwt. Galvalume ex-Midwest mill $34 - $35 $750 - $772 $680-$700 ↓ $1.00 cwt. 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 ex-Midwest mill $46 - $48 $1,014 - $1,058 $920-$960 ↓ $1.00 cwt.
However, the softening trend for galvanized and Galvalume products has not been unique to the domestic market, as the trend has, for the most part, also emerged in overseas offerings. Most notably- is that China and Taiwan have announced rather aggressive pricing for Galvalume 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55, and due to the late October arrival time, this is attracting a bit of interest, because some buyers are expecting to see domestic market prices begin ticking back up by the end of summer.
Import HDG offers to the US Cwt. Metric ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week 0.012"x40.875" G30 India $45-$46 $992-$1,014 $900-$920 ↓$1.00 cwt. on high end China $44-$46 $970-$1,014 $880-$920 neutral 0.019"x48" G90 India $45-$47 $992-$1,036 $900-$940 neutral China $44-$45 $970 -$1,014 $880-$920 ↓$1.00 cwt. on high end Galvalume 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 China $43 - $44 $948 - $970 $860-$880 ↓$3.00 cwt. Taiwan $43 - $44 $948 - $970 $860-$880 ↓$3.00 cwt. Korea bid-basis -- -- --
*All listed overseas offers are FOB loaded truck, US Gulf ports.
According to the most recent data by the Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System, as of July 13, to date, current import of HDG products are at 50,122 mt (license data), with the most significant offshore importer being Taiwan, at 16,472 mt. For the month of June, however, the total import tonnage for HDG products was at 124,380 mt, with the most significant importers of this product being Taiwan, at 17,468 mt; and China, at 19,693 mt. It should be pointed out, that while only half way through the month, that Taiwanese imports of coated products have almost exceeded those reported during the month of June.