US hot dip galvanized coil prices have not weakened further in the last week, but the overall price trend for US HDG is still pointing downward as US flats mills continue to compete aggressively with one another and with imports. Meanwhile, an antidumping case on Chinese HDG imports may be imminent.
With US busheling scrap prices dropping further this month, US minimills have dropped their prices in step, with domestic hot rolled coil offers falling to as low as $20.00 cwt. ($441/mt or $400/nt) ex-mill by mid-month. However, while the three leading flat rolled minimills in the US -- Steel Dynamics, Severstal and Nucor -- have been engaged in a "price fight" of sorts and continue to lead the way with the most competitive offers, integrated mills like AK Steel and US Steel are following the minimills' lead and lowering their prices in turn.
As a result of the increasingly aggressive US domestic offers, import flat rolled offers are declining as well with foreign mills aiming to keep their offers competitive with those of US' mills. However, with both domestic and import prices continuing decline, US flat rolled buyers are wary of buying offshore material given the longer lead times. Therefore, as far as coated products are concerned, imports are not currently a threat to domestic mills. Most customers continue to only buy small amounts of tonnage from domestic mills on an as-needed basis, while imports are only attractive for niche items that domestic mills don't want to make.
Domestic HDG prices, after declining in the first two weeks of April, have not changed from last week. However, the overall pricing trend remains down as there are no indications that the market has hit bottom yet. Currently, domestic HDG base prices range from $24.00 cwt. to $26.00 cwt. ($529 /mt to $573 /mt or $480 /nt to $520 /nt) ex-Midwest mills. Domestic offers for 0.019" x 48" G90 (0.48 mm x 1.219 m) range from $33.00 cwt. to $35.00 cwt. ($728 /mt to $772 /mt or $660 /nt to $700 /nt) ex-mill and offers for 0.012" x 40.875" G30 (0.30 mm x 1.04 m) range from $35.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. ($772 /mt to $816 /mt or $700 /nt to $740 /nt) ex-mill. Domestic galvalume base prices range from $25.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($551 /mt to $595 /mt or $500 /nt to $540 /nt) and domestic offers for 0.019" x 41.5625" Gr80/AZ55 are offered at a range of $34.00 cwt. to $36.00 cwt. ($750 /mt to $794 /mt or $680 /nt to $720 /nt) ex-mill.
On the import side, most offshore offers are still available at the same range as last week, although Indian HDG offers of 0.012" G30 have declined slightly in the last seven days to catch up with domestic offers and other import offers. Also, boosted by the VAT rebate increase, some Chinese import HDG offers have started to appear as well. However, only second-tier mills are offering at rates that are competitive with other imports, while the big Chinese mills are not offering competitively.
Nonetheless, even though China is not currently a big player in the US' flat rolled import market, SteelOrbis continues to hear of rumors of an imminent antidumping case to be filed against import galvanized products, probably against more than one country, but with the main target being China. Given the current uneventful market conditions, the purpose of the filing would be to serve as more of a preventative measure to ward against any future influx of Chinese imports, which domestic mills fear. However, traders comment that such a case may be difficult to win, as Chinese HDG import figures do not paint such a dramatic of a picture as those in the recently filed OCTG case do. Nevertheless, US flat rolled mills have been encouraged by the OCTG filing and a trade case filing on HDG targeting China in the coming weeks is a strong possibility.
Looking at the most recent import offers to the US for 0.019" G90 material, most sources have trended sideways since last week with Taiwanese and South Korean offers still ranging from $35.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US West Coast ports. Indian offers continue to range from $34.00 cwt. to $36.00 cwt. in US Gulf Coast ports, while the competitive Chinese offers are found in the same range.
On the 0.012" G30 side, Indian offers have retreated by $2.00 cwt. ($44 /mt or $40 /nt) since last week to a range of $33.00 cwt. to $35.00 cwt. in Gulf ports, while competitive Chinese offers have shown up in the range of $34.00 cwt. to $36.00 cwt. in the Gulf. 0.012" offers from Mexico, Taiwan, and Korea all remain unchanged since last week, with Mexican and Korean offers found at $33.00 cwt. to $35.00 cwt. (Mexican offers are delivered at the border crossing while Korean offers are loaded truck in the West Coast). Taiwanese offers remain at a range of $35.00 cwt. to $37.00 cwt. on the West Coast.
Galvalume offers from foreign mills are also unchanged since last week with Taiwanese and Mexican offers of 0.019" Gr80/AZ55 ranging from $35.00 cwt. to $37.00 on the West Coast for Taiwanese material and at the border crossing for Mexican. South Korean offers range from $33.00 cwt. to $35.00 cwt. on the West Coast.