US domestic flat rolled steel prices have softened yet again in the past 7 days, with sources throughout the US saying they believe the downtrend could continue for the next 30-45 days.
For example, this week’s domestic HRC prices are trending at $47-$50 cwt. ($1,036-$1,102/mt or $940-$1,000/nt), FOB mill, against $49-$51 cwt. ($1,080-$1,124/mt or $980-$1,020/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
CRC and HDG prices are also down week-over-week, with current CRC prices trending at $57-$60 cwt. ($1,257-$1,323/mt or $1,140-$1,200/nt), FOB mill, and HDG prices trending at $55-$57 cwt. ($1,213-$1,257/mt or $1,140-$1,100/nt), FOB mill.
Sources have said that despite these lower ranges, they’ve heard “hot rolled as low as $44 cwt. ($970/mt or $880/nt), CRC as low as $52 cwt. ($1,146/mt or $1,040/nt), and HDG at and below $52 cwt. ($1,146/mt or $1,040/nt), all FOB mill, for large-tonnage orders.
Yesterday, SteelOrbis reported that one market source said he feels that it’s only a matter of time before US HRC falls below $40 cwt. ($882/mt or $800/nt), FOB mill, especially in that Korean steelmakers have been successful in selling HRC to US-based traders at approximately 38 cwt. ($838/mt or $760/nt), DDP loaded truck in US Gulf coast ports.
“If people are buying Korean at that level, this tells you where the domestic market is heading,” another source said.
Most sources polled said they believe that HRC prices won’t bottom until they’re below $40 cwt.($882/mt or $800/nt), FOB mill. “The big question at this point is how fast the market gets there,” the source continued.
Lead times are also soft, another source said, noting that HRC lead times are at 3-4 weeks, “and in some cases sooner than that.” Lead times for HDG and CRC are being heard at approximately 4-6 weeks, depending on the mill of origin.
“I think the only thing that could slow this down is if scrap prices shift back up,” another source said, “but if you look at what’s going on with that market, I don’t see any signs that point to scrap going back up.”