The flat rolled business in the US market is still slow. However, it appears that prices have just about bottomed out.
After slipping significantly in October and November, domestic flat rolled prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, with most hot rolled coil offers still ranging from $26.00 cwt. to $28.00 cwt. ($573 /mt to $617 /mt or $520 /nt to $560 /nt) FOB mill. West Coast hot rolled coil prices are still significantly higher, in the range of $31.00 cwt. to $32.00 cwt. ($683 /mt to $705 /mt or $620 /nt to $640 /nt), partially due to lack of competition, and partially due to the higher rail rates from the Midwest mills.
Most domestic cold rolled coil prices continue to range from approximately $31.50 cwt. to $33.50 cwt. ($694 /mt to $739 /mt or $630 /nt to $670 /nt) FOB mill in the Gulf and East Coast.
There are still some deep discounts offered by so-called second-tier mills. However, these offers are only extended to large tonnage buyers, and major mills like
Nucor, Arcelor Mittal, and
US Steel, are still holding the line at the higher end of the pricing spectrum.
Although prices appear to have bottomed out, they do not seem to be in a hurry to go back up again. It is no secret that inventories are still higher than average and that
automotive sales are still sluggish. Nevertheless, inventories will eventually be depleted and people are generally optimistic about the year ahead. Also, significant
production cuts should make an impact soon. It may take a little while for customers to start buying again in a big way, but now that the holidays are over, steel professionals expect more buying activity to take place in the next couple of weeks.
Import flat rolled prices are also trending sideways, with most hot rolled coil offers still ranging from $25.00 cwt. to $27.00 cwt. ($551 /mt to $595 /mt or $500 /nt to $540 /nt) FOB loaded truck, in US Gulf ports. Cold rolled coil imports range from $29.00 cwt. to $31.00 cwt. ($639 /mt to $683 /mt or $580 /nt to $620 /nt) FOB loaded-truck in US Gulf and West Coast ports.
SteelOrbis has learned that there are still some low-priced hot and cold rolled offers from
Mexico that range towards the bottom of the pricing spectrum. Still, these offers have not moved in the last month and are unlikely to go any lower, as Mexican mills are getting busier. Chinese offers are also likely to stay flat for awhile, as flat rolled prices in
China are staying steady and, in some cases, even trending slightly up. In general, the import pricing trend remains neutral.
Preliminary license data from the
US Steel Import Monitor shows that during the month of December 2006, the top exporters of hot rolled sheet to the US were:
Korea at 54,416 mt,
Egypt at 50,141 mt,
Australia at 35,748 mt,
Canada at 27,972 mt, and
Mexico at 19,441 mt.
HRC shipments from the usual exporters,
Russia and
Malaysia, slowed down significantly in November and December, with both countries exporting negligible quantities. However, the import statistics could change in the upcoming months.
The top exporters of cold rolled sheet to the US in December were:
Taiwan at 70,735 mt,
Brazil at 41,625 mt,
China at 28,985 mt,
Canada at 15,076 mt, and
Korea at 12,285 mt.
CRC imports from
Russia slowed down considerably in December as well, amounting to just 4,258 mt.