The domestic flat rolled market is still going strong, though we probably will not see any major price increases for the rest of the year.
Market experts anticipate that domestic producers' $20 /nt August price increase will go through, but no further increase will be observed in September. Demand and
consumption are still strong, but the pricing trend will likely flatten out after the next price increase, as inventories are growing and as flat rolled prices are no longer going up on a global basis. The Chinese flat rolled market in particular is falling abruptly.
Experts concur that domestic hot rolled offers still range from approximately $31.00 cwt. to $32.00 cwt. ($683 /mt to $705 /mt or $620 /nt to $640 /nt) FOB mill, and cold rolled offers range from $35.50 cwt. to $36.50 cwt. ($783 /mt to $805 /mt or $710 /nt to $730 /nt) FOB mill.
On the West Coast, the market is also steady, with prices $2.00 cwt. to $3.00 cwt. above prices in the rest of the country. It is expected that West Coast mills will keep their prices stable until September, but most mills look like they are comfortably full until the end of October.
The import pricing trend is now slightly down. The market for import hot rolled coils is still pretty healthy -- demand is decent, and supplies are more constricted since antidumping policies prevent
China from shipping much
HRC to the US. Hot rolled import offers have increased by approximately $1.00 cwt. since our last report. On the other hand, import cold rolled prices are now trending down, possibly because of oversupply. Import prices for cold rolled coils have dipped by $1.00 cwt. since our last report. From this point on, import prices for hot and cold rolled coils should start to come down a bit since they are uncomfortably close to domestic offers, and traders are holding off on big purchases until prices come down. Also, distributors want to keep their end-of-the-year inventories light for tax reasons.
Import hot rolled offers currently range from $31.00 cwt. to $32.00 cwt. ($683 /mt to $705 /mt or $620 /nt to $640 /nt) FOB loaded truck, US Gulf ports, and cold rolled offers now range from $33.50 cwt. to $34.50 cwt. ($739 /mt to $761 /mt or $670 /nt to $690 /nt) FOB loaded truck, US Gulf ports.
Year-to date import statistics as of July 18 show that the countries that exported the most hot rolled sheet into the US this year so far are:
Korea, at 513,622 mt;
Egypt, at 331,800 mt;
Canada, at 309,957 mt;
Australia, at 249,805 mt; and
Turkey, at 212,415 mt.
The most cold rolled sheet this year so far has come from:
Brazil, at 262,558 mt;
China, at 255,022 mt;
Taiwan, at 225,657 mt;
Canada, at 169,471 mt; and
Mexico, at 104,711 mt.
There is some reservation about making large purchases going into the fourth quarter, and distributors will start to pull in their import buying a bit. However, no one is getting overly cautious just yet because inventories are only slightly larger than they were a few months ago, and demand is expected to remain strong through the remainder of the year.