Although as recently as last week, industry insiders had predicted that US domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) pricing could tick down as low as $25.00 cwt. ($551/mt or $500/nt), AK Steel, Severstal NA, and Nucor Sheet Mill this week announced a $1.50 cwt. to $2.00 cwt. ($33/mt to $44/mt or $30/nt to $40/nt) increase on all HRC and CRC products, effective immediately--essentially halting recently seen downward pricing trends for flats products.
The lingering question however, seems to revolve on what exactly (if anything) this may mean for the market in the short term.
As with many of the conversations being held about the cost and trend of steel, that opinion is almost entirely based on who you're talking to, what side of the bed they woke up on and which direction the tide is flowing.
Some point to now-rising lead times, because people who have been holding off purchases may have been knocked off the fence, meaning increased order activity because people are scared. "A lot of sales people were making calls saying hey, if you need product, buy it now, because in 15 minutes the cost is going up," commented one purchasing manager, who had made the decision to purchase some tons before increase announcements began taking hold.
Others aren't so sure that's going to happen, having stated they intend to do a "whole hell of a lot of nothing" for the next week or two because they have no interest in making any purchasing decisions "until the dust settles".
But the biggest question, though, is that while the $40/nt increase has been announced, is "$40/nt up from where"? SteelOrbis has learned that transaction pricing last week for HRC ranged from, in some cases, $1.00 cwt.+ below our previously reported range (see below chart) whereas others reported having purchased on the higher side of the span The general consensus, though, is that not all that much has changed since the start of the week, and that if a buyer is willing to wave some tons in the air, previously reported transaction ranges can still be obtained.
For now, though, the trend will be neutral to slightly up, with previously seen pricing downticks very likely to be a thing of the past.
Looking south, Mexican HRC and CRC has remained neutral, with the expectation that Mexican mills will continue to monitor the situation North of the border, and will begin to modify their sales prices accordingly.
In terms of overseas imports, Chinese pricing has, as expected, increased week-on-week, falling in line with recent increases seen on Chinese coated products.
Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week US domestic HRC $27 - $28 $595 - $617 $540 - $560 → to slightly upward CRC $32 - $33 $705 - $728 $640 - $660 → to slightly upward Mexican HRC $28 - $29 $617 - $639 $560 - $580 → to slightly upward CRC $33 - $35 $728 - $772 $660 - $700 → to slightly upward Chinese CRC $36.50 -$38.50 $805 - $849 $730-$770 ↑ 1.50 cwt.