The trend for domestic cut-to-length plate remains neutral from our report two weeks ago, although current market volatility could force plate prices downward by the end of the year.
The most commonly seen transaction ranges for US domestic plate have remained at around $39.50-$40.50 cwt. ($871-$893/mt or $790-$810/nt) ex-Midwest mill since early October, although buyers say there are still plenty of deals out there, and mill prices remain easily negotiable for excess tons. Therefore, the trend is pointing down, as buyers of domestic plate are worried that with hot rolled coil (HRC) hitting $26.00-$27.00 cwt. ($573-$595/mt or $520-$540/nt) and numerous deals being reported below this range, downward pricing movements in the HRC market could trickle over into the plate market.
Overall, end-use demand is stable, but still not great. The US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced Monday that construction spending increased 0.5 percent in September over August, but that's still down 10.4 percent over September 2009. Furthermore, the latest Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) data indicates that demand has been steady, and daily plate shipments increased 5.8 percent in the month of September over August, and total monthly plate shipments of 326,000 nt in September were the most since November 2008.
For now though, the trend for domestic cut-to-length plate is neutral to slightly downward, with an unpredictable marketplace keeping plate buyers and sellers on their toes.
Shifting focus offshore, import activity in the plate market is relatively quiet. Neither Mexican mills, which have been aggressive in its offerings to the US for other flats products, nor Brazilian mills are offering anything enticing enough to spark the interest of domestic buyers.
Total imports also appear to have declined in October according to preliminary license data from the US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA), which demonstrates that total import tonnage of cut-to-length plate was 41,766 metric tons (mt) (license data) in October, down from 57,380 mt (census data) in September, reflecting a more than 30 percent decrease month-over-month.