How long will a sideways trend hold for US domestic HDG?

Little, if anything has changed within the US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) markets since our last report a week ago, with the most commonly reported spot price transaction range having held in the approximate range of $37.00-$39.00 cwt. ($816-$860/mt or $840-$860/nt) ex-Midwest mill. Although sources close to SteelOrbis say the bulk of transactions are taking place at the higher end of this range, deals toward the lower end continue to be available to those who are looking to book significant tons. Plus, some service centers are reportedly selling at prices only slightly higher than the ex-mill range to certain end-use customers.  

The big question, though, is how long this trend will sustain.  When rumors of a potential trade case against certain offshore producers, some buyers were enticed to buy more attractively priced material from Chinese and Indian mills. And now that no case has been filed, some point out to a likely influx of import material in the upcoming weeks.  Others sources close to SteelOrbis say that in the absence of a trade case, this could be problematic, because if the market is flooded with more material than demand requires, “the whole house of cards could come tumbling down.”