Flat rolled market outlook

Thursday, 27 July 2006 12:25:37 (GMT+3)   |  
The impacts of slowdown in flat rolled market have started to be observed throughout the world. Following the slowdown in long product market, a similar slowdown is observed in flat rolled market, as well. The price announcements of the CIS mills have determined the direction of flat rolled market. Russian steelmaker Severstal's entering the market this month with the price levels of the previous month, a decline of $40-50/mt in the prices of another Russian steelmaker MMK,a similar decline of $30-40/mt in the prices of Ukrainian steelmaker Zaporizhstal and the decreases in the prices of another Ukrainian steelmaker Ilyich are all seen as confirmation of a slowdown in global flat rolled market. Although CIS countries have hiked prices in their domestic markets, global market sees a decline. Tranquility in Turkish flat rolled market still continues, despite the announced prices. The uncertainty, which has emerged due to the lack of a clear idea about the situation of the market, causes discomfort. During this uncertainty period, people buy material only enough to meet their immediate requirements or use from stock and wait for this uncertainty to pass and keep their position. Taking the revival in the Turkish automotive industry into account, it is expected that cold rolled steel market may gain some kind of activity. Moreover, the effects of global decline in galvanized material prices are also seen in Turkish market. The situation in Turkish market creates an advantageous position for mills in terms of their exports to CIS countries. Rising prices in the CIS coupled with the decline in the prices in Turkish market has caused emergence of new offers between CIS and Turkey. The development in the home appliance industry, together with the increase in the utilization of iron and steel industry products in its sub-industry (especially the increase in the usage of LDCs instead of TVs in the electronics industry) helps steel industry grow. The Far East market seems calm. Buyers in Vietnam follow the developments in China closely and the market trend will gain clarity early August. Especially bookings for hot rolled strip and cold rolled strip are postponed till then. Vietnamese market is currently in a tranquil state. Since Taiwanese mills supply many products to the local market, flat rolled product imports are very rarely heard. While some mills are asking for $630/mt FOB for cold rolled products export, it is observed that not many buyers are interested in this level. The fact that prices for cold rolled sheet and strip, and galvanized products are low in China limits Taiwanese exports. Prices for cold rolled products and plate do not indicate any change in the Philippines market and the market keeps its tranquil state. The market, which has been indicating a slowdown for the last few weeks in general, is expected to rebound in August. The Singaporean market is still calm, too. The latest offer at $610/mt CFR for shipbuilding plates has not been accepted in the market. The global decline and tranquil state in flat rolled market are expected to gain momentum in the second half of August. The fact that holiday period in Europe will end and that automotive industry is very brisk may trigger the activity in the flat rolled market.

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