General: Just as the administration of the newly elected president Christina Fernandez was sworn into office in early December 2007, Argentina recorded the first monthly budget deficit in over one year. Still, the budget surplus for 2007 came in at Pesos 25.7 billion, or 3.2% of the GDP. The overall economic conditions in Argentina remain encouraging, even though there are still doubts about the veracity of the inflation rate.
GDP: + 8.7% as of Q3 for the past twelve months; in the first 10 months of 2007, GDP grew by 8.5%
Consumer Prices: +8.5% in December; unofficial sources put this index closer to 20% and believe that this will not change for 2008.
Industrial Production: +8.3% in November
Unemployment: 7.5% in Q4
Trade Balance: +$11.2 billion as of December for the past twelve months; imports in 2007 rose 31%, bringing a host of consumer goods (e.g. German made cars) back into stores.
Currency: Peso 3.16 to US$1 as of January 23 (Peso 3.10 to US$1 a year ago)
Steel Production 2007: 5.4 million metric tons or 2.6% less than in 2006 (#9 in the world)
General: In economic terms, 2007 was a good year for Brazil. This is best reflected in the 60% increase of Brazil's stock market value. Low interest rates and a check on inflation have sparked a consumer boom. Retail sales in 2007 are expected to come in at 11% over 2006. In January, the Central Bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11.25%.
GDP: + 5.7% in Q3; estimates for 2007 point to a 6.0% increase.
Consumer Prices: +4.5% in December
Industrial Production: +6.7% in November
Unemployment: 8.2% in November
Trade Balance: +$40.0 billion as of December for the past twelve months.
Automotive Industry: 2.46 million new vehicles were registered in 2007, 90% of them with ethanol enabled engines. In stark contrast to their US sales, Ford increased their Brazilian production by 20% to 247,095 units in 2007. Another increase of 17% is expected for this year. Ford announced it would invest $1.0 billion over the next four years in their Brazilian plants.
Currency: Real 1.61 to US$1 as of January 23 (Real 2.13 to US$1 a year ago)
Steel Production 2007: 33.8 million metric tons or 9.3% ahead of 2006 (#31 in the world)
Special Focus: Experts don't rule out imminent electricity rationing. Shortfall of rain has left reservoirs of hydro power plants dangerously low. To add to this problem, natural gas production has also decreased in the past few weeks. Spot electricity rates have doubled in January.
GDP: +4.1% in Q3 (-2.5% compared to Q2); Central Bank officials still expect a growth rate of 5.2% for 2007.
Consumer Prices: +7.8% in December, the highest level since 1996. Consequently, The Central Bank increased the benchmark lending rate to 6.25%, a six year high.
Industrial Production: +4.2% in November
Unemployment: 7.3% in November
Trade Balance: + $24.5 billion as of December for the past twelve months
Copper: The average price for 2007 was $3.23 per lb. Officials forecast $2.95 in 2008 in view of global economic turmoil and a potential worldwide overproduction. By 2009, officials forecast a copper surplus compared with last year's shortfall of about 49,000 tons.
Currency: Peso 478 to US$1 as of January 23 (Peso 540 to US$1 a year ago)
General: Reliable economic data are hard to obtain in Venezuela. The government's micro-management of the economy continues to amaze. In January, President Chavez himself decreed an increase of the milk price by 36%, threatening dairy farms with expropriation if they divert their products to foreign markets. Price controls of food items have lead to increased smuggling activities to neighboring countries.
GDP: +8.7% in Q3
Consumer Prices: +22.5% in December
Industrial Production: +2.7% in September
Unemployment: 8.5% in Q3
Trade Balance: $23.4 billion as of Q3 for the past twelve months
Currency: Bolivar 5.25 to US$1 as of January 16 (Bolivar 4.15 to US$1 a year ago). These are the unofficial rates of the "second tier" market. Black market rates are even higher. The Venezuelan government recently decided to take three digits off the value of their currency.
Steel Production 2007: 5.0 million metric tons or 3.2% ahead of 2006 (#33 in the world)