South American economic overview - May 2, 2007

Wednesday, 02 May 2007 10:22:20 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Argentina:

GDP: First estimates call for + 8.2% in Q1, continuing the strong growth of last year

Consumer Prices: + 9.1% in March (11.1% a year ago)

Industrial Production: + 7.0% in March compared to last year, fueled by strong production figures of automobiles and material for the construction industry

Unemployment: 9.7% in Q1

Trade Balance: + $11.7 billion in March for the past 12 months

Steel Production: 477,000 mt in March, a reduction of 5.7% over last year. In Q1, 1.228 million mt were produced or 9.9% less than last year.

Currency: Peso 3.08 to US$1 as of April 25 (Peso 3.04 to US$1 a year ago)

Brazil:

GDP: 3.8% in Q4 2006 - latest projection for 2007 is + 4.2%; a recalculation of the GDP puts the average growth rate for 2003-2006 at 3.4% (previously 2.6%); net debt to GDP ratio is now 43.7%.

Consumer Prices: + 3.0% in March

Retail Sales: + 9.4% in February from a year earlier

Industrial Production: + 3.0% in March - unchanged from February

Unemployment: 9.9% in February

Trade Balance: + $45.5 billion in March for the past 12 months

Steel Production: 2.785 million mt in March, an increase of 12.4%. In Q1, 7.995 million mt were produced or 11.3% more than last year.

Interest Rate: The benchmark lending rate was lowered to 12.5% -- a record low and the 15th consecutive rate cut. Because of low inflation and sluggish growth, another cut is expected in June.

Currency: Real 2.03 to US$1 April 25 (Real 2.12 to US$1 a year ago)

Special Focus: The continuing appreciation of the Real has an unpleasant impact on exports, especially for cars. GM's Brazilian unit forecasts a 12% reduction of their Brazilian exports this year. Manufacturing jobs are adversely affected as well. They only grew by 1.6% last year. This will not help, bringing down the relatively high unemployment rate.

Chile:

GDP: + 4.3% in Q4 2006. First estimates for Q1 show a 5.0% growth rate.

Consumer Prices: + 2.6% in March

Industrial Production: + 5.2% in March from a year earlier, the biggest increase in 10 months

Unemployment: 6.7% in March

Copper Price: $3.52 per lb as of April 30, for delivery in three months

Trade Balance: + $23.8 billion in March for the past twelve months, as exports surged in Q1. Exports to China grew 113% and to South Korea, 39%. Copper constitutes 36% of all exports.

Currency: Peso 527 to US$1 April 25 (518 a year ago)

Venezuela:

GDP: + 11.8% in Q4

Consumer Prices: + 18.5% in March

Industrial Production: + 6.7% in March

Unemployment: 11.1% in January

Steel Production: 455,000 mt (e) were produced in March - an increase of 8.8% to last year; In Q1, 1.291 million mt were produced or 2.4% more than last year.

Currency: Bolivar 3,379 to US$1 as of April 25 (Bolivar 2,510 to US$1 a year ago)

Investment Risk: Despite paying back all its debt to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the World Economic Forum considers Venezuela the third worst country for investment in Latin America. Only Bolivia and the Dominican Republic were rated worse. Standard and Poor's credit rating for Venezuela still is BB, or two levels below investment grade.

Special Focus: In a ceremony this week, President Chavez officially nationalized four large oil projects run by private firms, most of them from the US. Last year, Venezuelan oil exports to the US fell 8.2% from 2005. Venezuela is now only the fifth largest crude oil supplier to the US after Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. It is also Venezuela's declared aim to shift their oil exports to other areas, especially China. By 2012, 1.0 million barrels a day are scheduled to be shipped to China in a giant fleet of super tankers (up from 150,000 barrels a day last year). At the same time, Venezuela's crude oil output has fallen to 2.4 million barrels a day from 3.1 million barrels a day in 1999 when Mr. Chavez came to power.