South American economic overview – December 14, 2007

Saturday, 15 December 2007 20:30:39 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Argentina:

GDP: + 8.7% in Q2

Consumer Prices: + 8.5% in November. Another acceleration of the inflation rate will happen from January 1, when transportation costs for buses and trains will increase 30%. The newly inaugurated president, Ms. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, will have to address the steadily increasing inflation rate. Many experts still believe that it is understated by the government. President Fernandez de Kirchner has announced that a new methodology for calculating the consumer prices will be introduced. It will closely resemble the American methodology.

Industrial Production: + 4.4% in October

Unemployment: 8.1% in October

Trade Balance: + $10.7 billion for the twelve months through October

Currency: Pesos 3.14 to US$1 on December 12 (3.06 a year ago)

Steel Production: 497,000 mt in October, or 2.8% ahead of last year. In the first ten months of 2007, 4.4 million metric tons were produced or 7.0% less than last year.

Brazil:

GDP: + 5.7% in Q3; fueled by all time low interest rates and strong consumer demand, the Brazilian GDP has grown 5.2% in the four quarters to September 30 - the biggest increase since the end of 2004.

Consumer Prices: + 4.2% in November

Industrial Production: +10.3% in October

Unemployment: 8.7% in October

Trade Balance: + $41.4 billion in November. The trade surplus for the month of November shrank to $2.0 billion. The strong currency and strong consumer demand saw a sharp increase of imported goods.

Currency: Real 1.76 to US$1 on December 12 (2.14 a year ago)

Steel Production: 2.9 million metric tons in October or 4.4% ahead of last year. In the first ten months of 2007, 27.9 million metric tons were produced or 9.2% more than last year.

Chile:

GDP: + 4.1% in Q3

Consumer Prices: + 7.4% in November. This unexpectedly steep increase was caused by sharply higher energy prices and prompted the Central Bank to increase the benchmark lending rate by 0.25% to 6.0% on December 13.

Industrial Production: +5.0% in October

Unemployment: 7.7% in October

Trade Balance: + $24.8 billion for the twelve months through November

Currency: Pesos 498 to US$1 on December 12 (527 a year ago)

Copper Price: US$6,575 per metric ton as of December 13 for delivery in three months

Venezuela:

General: The inflation rate seems to be spinning out of control again. Excessive government spending and price controls are driving up prices and causing shortages of basic consumer goods. To respond to a serious milk shortage, 10,000 metric tons of powdered milk were airlifted into the country from Brazil.

GDP: + 8.7% in Q3

Consumer Prices: 20.7% in November

Industrial Production: +9.3% in August

Unemployment: 8.5% in October

Trade Balance: + $23.4 billion in Q3

Currency: Bolivar 5,275 to US$1 on December 12 (3,175 a year ago). This is the prevalent unofficial rate at the moment. Some quotations have reached Bolivar 6,000 to US$1.

Steel Production: 360,000 metric tons in October or 2.7% less than last year. In the first 10 months, 4.0 million metric tons were produced or 1.9% less than last year.