Is Russia ready for Kyoto Protocol?
According to
Russia's Izvestia newspaper, statements by Andrei Illarionov, economic advisor to President Putin of
Russia, regarding the Kyoto Protocol and its effect on
Russia sent the Russian cabinet and various economic and environmental associations of
Russia into turmoil.
Izvestia reports that Illarionov claims the protocol will cause a $220 trillion loss from the world's combined GDP in 2050. Illarionov argues that the world could be expected to achieve a combined GDP of $320 trillion in 2050 without Kyoto, based on the purchasing power parity of 1999. However, with the agreement in force the world can only hope for a combined GDP of $100 trillion in 2050, insists Illarionov.
The economic advisor went on to describe the possible “destructive” consequences of the protocol on the national economy. He implied that
Russia's ratification of the protocol was due to foreign pressure, especially in regards to
Russia's entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
However,
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development refutes Illarionov's statements. The ministry claims that the Protocol will benefit not only the environment, but also Russian industry. The ministry predicts that consumers will start becoming more conscious of environmental issues.
In addition to the Ministry of Economic Development, many of
Russia's major companies support the Protocol. For instance,
Russia established the National Hydrocarbon Association (NUS) in 2003 in order to control gas emissions. Major steel producer Evrazholding and major aluminum and
alloys producer Rusal are members of NUS. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development and NUS claim the protocol will bring stability to the market, empower consolidations and increase productivity.
A couple of days ago, South
Korea's Ministry of Industry issued comments similar to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development.
Korea, the world's 11th largest economy, is the ninth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It is also one of the most serious countries, along with
Japan, in regards to enlivening the Kyoto Protocol. Korean's main
automotive companies, such as Hyundai Motors, have already formed a task force to approach the Kyoto Protocol in a systematic manner. Moreover,
Korea's largest steelmaker, POSCO, disclosed an $850 million project to reduce energy
consumption by nearly 8% in the following two years.
On the other hand, some of the major Kyoto abiding countries,
Canada for instance, have no clear plans on what to do to reach their emission targets. The emissions of several such countries are currently 20% above 1990 levels.
The protocol calls for the European Union (EU) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% of 1990 levels during 2008-2012.
Japan and
Canada will have to reduce their emissions during the same period by 6% of 1990 levels.
Russia and
Ukraine will be called upon to bring their emission levels back down to 1990 levels.