Assessing Turkey's billet and rebar markets at the SteelOrbis Fall '10 Conference and 63rd IREPAS Meeting, Uğur Dalbeler, Çolakoğlu Metalurji CEO and also chairman of IREPAS pointed out that Turkey's rebar exports have been replaced by billet exports, with rebar exports in the first nine months of this year declining by 40-45 percent as compared to the same period of 2009. He remarked that 2009 was an exceptional year when Turkish exporters switched to the Egyptian market from the UAE market which was a key market for Turkish exports for years.
Mr. Dalbeler stressed that in 2008 Turkey almost imported 2.5 million metric tons of billet, on top of the total production of the country, and that 150 out of almost 250 small private re-rollers in Turkey were active, with production being sold to markets across the world. However, he added, the demand structure has significantly changed worldwide during the financial crisis, and the UAE was not an exception, resulting in the disappearance of all these small rollers and in the reduction of rebar exports in line with decreasing production levels.
The IREPAS chairman remarked that new markets have emerged, such as Iran, Libya, West and East Africa and Singapore, with the latter being a new market for Turkish exporters which was not seen in the last five or six years. Mr. Dalbeler also noted that Saudi Arabian imports from Turkey this year surpassed its imports in 2008.
Asked by Michael Setterdahl from Nucor Trading SA whether Turkey's scrap import volume would peak at a certain level beyond which it would not increase further, Mr. Dalbeler said that Turkey currently imports almost 18 million mt of scrap annually. In 2009, he said, Turkey imported over three million mt of billet to replace scrap imports, since Turkey has a strong advantage as regards billet imports from the Black Sea region as compared to imports from other regions and imported billets are used to reduce the cost of producing rebar. However, in 2010 Turkey's billet imports declined due to the reduced billet exports of Russia and Ukraine on the back of their strengthening local markets. At the same time, Dalbeler said, the new projects being commissioned this year, which will increase the country's steel output, will also boost Turkey's demand for scrap.
Regarding the long-term outlook for Turkey's steel production, Mr. Dalbeler said that, currently, only a modest increase is observed in Turkey's long steel production, while a significant rise is seen in its production of flat steel, for which the country supplies most of its needs via imports. Recalling that Turkey's steel consumption per capita is still below the world average and below what it should be, Dalbeler said that in five years' time domestic steel production of 30 million mt can be achieved, but this time most of the production will be used for Turkey's own needs.