At the 45th annual meeting of the World Steel Association (worldsteel) held in Paris on October 12, worldsteel announced that global apparent steel use will increase by 6.5 percent year on year in 2011 to 1.398 billion mt, following growth of 15.1 percent in 2010. In 2012, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow by a further 5.4 percent year on year.
Worldsteel's forecast suggests that by 2012 steel use in the developed world will still be 15 percent below the 2007 level, whereas in the emerging and developing economies it will be 44 percent above the 2007 level. In 2012, the emerging and developing economies will account for 73 percent of world steel demand, in contrast to 61 percent in 2007.
At worldsteel 's annual meeting, Daniel Novegil, chairman of the worldsteel economics committee and CEO of Luxembourg-headquartered steelmaker Ternium, said that in the first half of 2011 the world had witnessed sustained momentum in the recovery of steel demand globally carrying over from 2010. This is despite a series of anticipated and unanticipated negative developments, such as the ongoing euro area sovereign debt crisis, the earthquakes in Japan, the political/social unrest in some countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, leading to the related surge in oil prices and the tightening of governmental monetary measures in many emerging countries, Mr. Novegil said.
He continued by stating that today the global economy is facing increased uncertainty over how the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets will evolve and how it will affect the real economy. "Our current forecast for 2012 assumes that developing countries continue to drive global growth and the policy response to the European sovereign debt crisis prevents increased volatility in the equity and financial markets. In light of this global economic uncertainty, our forecast should be considered as ‘cautiously optimistic'," Novegil said.
Mr. Novegil went on to say, "We expect to see growth performance varying widely across regions. The recovery of steel demand in the developed world will be slow while most of the emerging and developing world should continue to enjoy robust growth in their steel demand."