On April 27, the World Steel Association (worldsteel), formerly the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI), announced its expectation that worldwide apparent steel use will decline by 14.9 percent to 1,018.6 million mt in 2009, after declining by 1.4 percent to 1,197 million mt in 2008. However, worldsteel said that steel demand would stabilize in the latter part of 2009, leading to a mild recovery in 2010.
Commenting on the forecast for 2009, Daniel Novegil, chairman of the worldsteel economics committee, said, "The progression of the US financial crisis into a global economic crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronized global decline of steel demand in late 2008. For most of the world this trend has continued into the first quarter of 2009. Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of 2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the continued stabilization of financial systems and a return of some consumer confidence. Steel remains a vital core material for today and tomorrow's world and the industry is well positioned to respond to changing market conditions."
The actual apparent steel use in 2008 and the figures estimated by worldsteel for 2009 by the worldsteel are as follows:
Short range outlook for apparent steel use (2008-2009) in million mt | ||||
Regions | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | 2009 |
EU (27) | 181.5 | 129.2 | -8.4% | -28.8% |
Other Europe | 28.9 | 21.5 | -8.3% | -25.7% |
50.0 | 38.4 | -11.8% | -23.1% | |
NAFTA | 129.7 | 88.0 | -8.2% | -32.2% |
Central and South America | 43.6 | 37.6 | 5.7% | -13.9% |
25.3 | 25.2 | 0.2% | -0.5% | |
42.8 | 39.0 | -0.9% | -8.9% | |
Asia and Oceania | 693.8 | 637.4 | 2.0% | -8.1% |
World | 1,197.4 | 1,018.6 | -1.4% | -14.9% |
537.6 | 505.9 | 2.3% | -5.9% | |
World (excl. BRIC) | 659.8 | 512.7 | -4.2% | -22.3% |
World (excl. China) | 771.8 | 614.2 | -3.6% | -20.4% |