According to the Metal Industry Indicators report released by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the steel leading index for the US decreased by 1.6 percent in June this year, the latest month for which it is available, falling to 109.1 from a revised 110.9 in May. Its six-month smoothed growth rate dropped to -3.4 percent from a revised -0.2 percent in May.
The declines in the PMI and in the S&P stock price index for iron and steel companies made the largest negative impact. In contrast, gains in new orders for iron and steel products and sales of cars and light trucks made a positive contribution to the leading index. The USGS report points out that the steel leading index growth rate suggests that steel industry activity growth in the US is likely to decrease further in the near future.
Note: Composite coincident indexes for the metal industries consist of indicators for production, shipments, and total employee hours worked. A growth rate above +1.0 percent is usually a sign of an upward near-term trend for future metals activity, while a growth rate below -1.0 percent indicates a downward trend.