For the first time this year, the ‘big three' iron ore producers - Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto - have decreased their prices for iron ore to be supplied to China, by a margin of 10 percent as of the start of October.
This move follows a 2.5 percent decrease in iron ore imports by China in the first three quarters of 2010 compared to the same period of 2009.
The question now is what kind of an impact such a drop in iron ore prices will have, if any, on the Chinese producers' side; especially as statistics reveal that the average price of iron ore in the same period is up by more than 55 percent year on year.
The reduced iron ore prices for China provided by the big three iron ore giants for the fourth quarter are still much higher compared with prices in the corresponding period in 2009, meaning that the latest reduction can only help mitigate cost pressure in the short term. China's iron ore market will still be influenced by overseas supplies, due to the country's strong demand for this raw material.
According to the data released by China's General Administration of Customs, in September this year China imported 52.6 million mt of iron ore, increasing by 18 percent or 8 million mt month on month. Meanwhile, in the first three quarters of 2010, the total import volume of iron ore in China amounted to 460 million mt, decreasing by 2.5 percent year on year. Since China will continue to implement its energy saving and emission reduction policy up to the end of 2010, China's total output of crude steel is expected to decline to some extent, thereby further influencing iron ore demand. On the other hand, as per data from the Chinese Iron and Steel Association (CISA), the restrictive policies applied in September in China exerted only a limited impact on Chinese steel production. Thus, it may be concluded that the slowdown observed in iron ore demand is temporary, i.e., the softer iron ore pricing may not be sustainable.
Other important players should be watched closely too, as iron ore demand in Europe and Japan is reported to be slowing down as well, which could also be a factor causing the iron ore giants to adjust their price strategies.
Eventually, restocking of iron ore by Chinese mills is not something that can be avoided forever, even though the production rates of the Chinese mills will be the defining factor when predicting the future rate of iron ore purchasing activities.
In September, China's average daily output of crude steel was 1.618 million mt, down by five percent month on month, although crude steel output in some provinces recovered in late September due to relaxation of implementation of the government policy aimed at saving energy and reducing emissions.
Although China has stepped up its investments in overseas iron ore resources and though its domestic iron ore output volume has increased, it should be noted that China will not achieve iron ore self-sufficiency in the short term, since China's domestic iron ore output is not able to meet the demand. At present, China's dependence on foreign iron ore is in the range of 50-70 percent.