International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has raised its iron ore price assumptions for 2024, 2025 and 2026, while also increasing its coking coal price assumptions for 2024 and 2025, though keeping its coking coal price assumptions for 2026 stable.
The agency has increased its iron ore price assumptions to $105/mt from $80/mt for 2024, to $90/mt from $80/mt for 2025 and to $85/mt from $75/mt for 2026, to reflect operational issues at many major producers due to underinvestment since 2020 that now limit supply.
The price assumptions for coking coal have been raised to $240/mt from $210/mt for 2024 and to $190/mt from $180/mt, due to lower seaborne supply amid weak exports from Australia and Russia, while the price assumptions for 2026 remain the same at $170/mt. The agency stated that exports from Australia are likely to gradually recover into the second quarter of 2024, but exports from sanctions-hit Russian producers will remain constrained. Demand is supported by strong steel production in China, but this may begin to weaken later in the year.