Steel demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery in 2018, according to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2017-2018/Q4 2017 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER). EUROFER stated that strengthening investment and robust exports are boosting the performance of steel-using sectors in the EU. However, increasing import pressure in the second quarter of the current year signals that foreign supply remains a critical issue for the EU steel sector.
EUROFER director general Axel Eggert stated that the relative balance between growth in domestic and foreign supply seen in the first quarter of this year was reversed at the expense of EU steel mills. According to Mr. Eggert, despite a reduction in imports from China and several other countries owing to corrective antidumping duties put in place, third country import volumes have risen again in the second quarter.
According to EUROFER, apparent steel consumption in the EU fell slightly in the second quarter of the current year, following robust growth in the first quarter. EU domestic suppliers' deliveries into the community market fell by 3.5 percent in the second quarter, whereas third country imports grew by just over 10 percent, both on year-on-year basis. First estimates for apparent steel consumption in the third quarter of 2017 signal a return of EU steel buyers to the market. The forecast for fourth quarter apparent steel consumption is for continued year-on-year growth, but with seasonal destocking dampening growth over this three-month period. Overall, EU apparent steel consumption is forecast to increase by 2.3 percent over the whole year. Steel demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery in 2018, driven by the expected rise in real steel consumption in the EU market and very modest support from the stock cycle.
The outlook for 2018 is positive overall. The relatively strong anticipated growth in investment, and the continued expansion of private consumption, will support EU domestic demand. Exports will also contribute to further activity growth among steel-users. Output in the EU’s steel-using sectors is forecast to grow by 1.9 percent in 2018, according to the EUROFER report.