Less imports and more exports - this, briefly, is how Eurofer (European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries) foresees Europe's foreign trade situation as regards steel products in 2008.
After the strong increase in steel product imports in Europe in 2007, Eurofer expects a drop in imports in 2008. Eurofer predicts a modest reduction in arrivals from non-EU countries in 2008, citing the increase in steel prices outside Europe, the high freight rates, and the strengthening of domestic demand in China. In light of these factors, Eurofer foresees a 5.6 percent drop in steel imports in 2008, compared to the 22.8 percent increase in imports registered in 2007. In greater detail, Eurofer's forecast for the steel import situation in 2008 is a drop of 7.7 percent in the first quarter, respective drops of 7.7 percent and 10.5 percent in the second and third quarters, followed by a rise of 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Turning to European steel exports in 2008, Eurofer expects an overall increase of 1.3 percent for the whole year, thanks to increases of 4.2 percent, 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent in the first, second and fourth quarters respectively. For the third quarter, however, a decrease of 2.1 percent in exports is predicted. Eurofer explains that the overall increase in exports will be limited as European producers will be focused on the reconquest of their internal markets. In 2007 European steel exports had registered a fall of 2.9 percent.