According to the Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2018-2019/Q3 2018 Report from the Economic Committee of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), EU automotive output, grew by 2.5 percent year on year in the first quarter of the current year. This is indeed a moderation of growth compared with the 6.5 percent growth registered in the same period of 2017 and overall growth of almost four percent over the whole year of 2017, but in line with the anticipated weakening of demand dynamics in the domestic market. Output in the second quarter of 2018 is estimated to have risen by 2.8 percent year on year.
According to EUROFER, the outlook for export demand for EU-made passenger cars and commercial vehicles is becoming increasingly more uncertain. Export volumes are under pressure due to rising local production in third countries that is gradually replacing EU exports; this could outweigh the positive impact from rising demand in emerging countries. Moreover, the current protectionist attitude of the Trump administration is fuelling concerns of automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) based in the EU, and particularly of those with significant exposure to US trade such as Germany, Italy and the UK.
The outlook for EU automotive output is moderately positive. Total EU automotive output, including parts and components, is expected to rise by 2.5 percent this year and by 0.9 percent in 2019, year on year.