According to the estimate of the Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) released on March 21, from the fiscal year 2011-12 to the fiscal year 2016-17 Australia's metallurgical coal export volumes are forecast to rise by eight percent a year reaching 218 million mt, while the country's export earnings from metallurgical coal are projected to total $30 billion in the fiscal year 2016-17.
In 2011, Australia's metallurgical coal exports decreased by 16 percent year on year to 133 million mt due to the effects of heavy rain in January 2011 which reduced production for much of the year. Exports in 2012 are forecast to increase by 18 percent year on year to 157 million mt as production in Queensland recovers from flood-related disruptions in 2011.
Meanwhile, Australia's exports of metallurgical coal are projected to increase at an average annual rate of nine percent to reach 220 million mt in 2017. The strong growth will be supported by new and expanded mining projects and expansions to port and rail capacity on the Queensland coast, including developments at the ports at Abbot Point and Hay Point.
According to the report, world trade of metallurgical coal is projected to increase at an annual average rate of five percent to reach 354 million mt in 2017. The strongest growth in imports is expected to come from India, China and Brazil, while imports into Japan and the EU are projected to increase only moderately.
The report also notes that, between 2012 and 2017, metallurgical coal imports into India, China and Brazil are projected to grow strongly, underpinned by strong growth in steel production. In the period in question, China's metallurgical coal imports are projected to increase by seven percent to reach 69 million mt by 2017.