On Tuesday, The American Trucking Associations reported that its advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index contracted 0.9 percent in August after increasing 0.4 percent in July. (July's gain was better than the no change ATA reported on August 21.) The sequential drop in August, while not erasing the cumulative 1.5 percent gain in June and July, was significant. Compared with August 2011, the SA index was 3.2 percent higher. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.7 percent.
"While there has been acceleration in housing during the last few months, truck tonnage is being weighed down by a flattening in manufacturing output and an unintentional increase in inventories throughout the supply chain," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. "While choppy, tonnage has essentially been flat this year with August being the second lowest month of the year. Expect tough year-over-year comparisons to continue through the rest of the year as tonnage grew nicely during the last five months of 2011."
He added that the economy isn't expected to grow much in the second half of the year as manufacturing decelerates and excess inventories are worked off. As a result, tonnage is expected to increase less than 3.5 percent in 2012.