US domestic and import line pipe market treading on “pins and needles”

Although US domestic and import prices for API-X42 electric resistance weld (ERW) line pipe have held lateral since our last report a week ago, last week’s affirmative final determinations announcement against mills in six countries named in the OCTG trade case is making waves within the market. “Everything is pretty much status quo,” according to one Texas-based trader, “but things are about to get interesting in the wake of the trade case announcement.” Although some had believed that mills in Thailand and the Philippines would shift focus to line pipe exports, as have Indian producers, since both countries received negative final determinations, they are not expected to be heavily focused on selling API-X42 ERW pipe to the US. Traders also point out that now that US producers have more confidence in their ability to win these types of cases, that the “floodgates may have just been opened,” predicting that a line pipe case “is likely to be seen much sooner than later.”

In terms of prices within the US domestic spot market, those continue to hold at approximately $51.00-$52.00 cwt. ($1,124-$1,146/mt or $1,020-$1,040/nt) ex-Midwest mill, while futures offers from Korean and Taiwanese producers have also held steady at $40.00-$41.00 cwt. ($882-$904/mt or $800-$820/nt) DDP loaded truck US Gulf coast ports. Futures offers from Vietnamese and Indian mills are also unchanged in the past seven days, still coming in at approximately $38.50-$39.50 cwt. ($849-$871/mt or $770-$790/nt) DDP loaded truck US Gulf coast ports.