How will the US OCTG trade case’s final ruling impact the market?

Late last week, the US International Trade Commission moved to delay its final injury determination in the trade case against nine offshore importers of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) to the US.  The final announcement, which had been slated to come out last Friday, was postponed to August 22 after the Department of Commerce (DOC) admitted making a clerical error in calculating dumping margins for Saudi Arabian respondent Jubail Energy Services Company (JESCO). As a result, the previous margin of 2.69 percent has been changed to a de minimis level, which means the DOC has now made a negative final dumping determination with respect to OCTG from Saudi Arabia.  At least one Philippine respondent had also asked to submit additional information before the final determination was announced, although whether this documentation will impact their final margin has yet to be known.

For now, the market has seemingly taken a “wait and see” approach, with all US buyers anxiously wondering how the dust will finally settle.  In terms of pricing, all that has remained stable since our last report a week ago, with the most commonly reported US domestic spot price transaction range remaining at $59.00-$61.00 cwt. ($1,300-$1344/mt or $1,180-$1,220/nt) ex-Midwest mill, while futures offers from Taiwanese and Korean producers coming in at approximately $51.00-$52.00 cwt. ($1,124-$1,146/mt or $1,020-$1,040/nt) and  $52.00-$53.00 cwt. ($1,146-$1,168/mt or $1,040-$1,060/nt), respectively, both DDP loaded truck in US Gulf coast ports.